Hi all, so I'm starting to get personal attacks in the comments from strong anti-vaxxers. I am deleting those as a matter of public service despite them calling me cowardly. I don't want this article to be a platform for disinformation or the degeneration into mudslinging that is happening elsewhere. I understand and emphathize with many concerns of anti-vaxxers, ranging from the corporatization of medicine to not putting enough focus on wellness, but in this case, I am clear that amplifying views that are not adequately grounded in science risks lives and am not willing to provide a platform for it. For some of the thoughtful folks who are championing ivermectin as a treatment, I'm going to do so more research. It seems like the meta-analyses out there were skewed by one large study that has been shown to have falsified data records and was removed. While I hope that it can make a big difference, I'm not yet compelled by what I've read. It was used extensively by India in the last wave and they still had an estimated 1.3M excess deaths, so at the very least, it doesn't seem to be the cure all that the proponents tout. I do think it's worth investigating all promising treatments, including those that are non-drug such as vitamins.
Have some relevant background, as former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Health (That is, US Public Health Service), involved in vaccines and disease outbreaks since 1981 and later, Global VP of a major vaccine company, and consultant to governments and companies about vaccines. I can't dispute any of your calculations because I don't follow them that closely these days, I'm 100% focused on finding ways to reduce hesitancy and improve uptake. However, they sound plausible to me.
There are two things I wish you could do. The first won't be easy: overlay the Unvaccinated Nation (nice term, by the way) with the availability of hospitals to care for those who become ill. Many of those who are not vaccinated are in areas of the country with only the barest of hospital care. When they need tertiary care, they travel to urban centers to get it. Health care systems in rural and smaller-towns are already underfunded and under-resourced (and in some cases non-existent). Those urban centers, which act as a 'tertiary care safety net' for the rest of the state, will not be a viable option if the locals get there first.
Second, spend more time focusing on morbidity. I have been critical of CDC and even friend Fauci about this from the start. Even if someone is not hospitalized, Covid for many people is far worse than the flu (and let's face it, even real flu is bad). The long term consequences are not good (and many are probably still unknown). We've been far too focused on deaths. They're tragic, but so is a long hauler who can't work a job or will be hammered with insurance refusals because of pre-existing conditions.
Nice article. Thanks for giving it this much thought.
I have a Ph. D in population biology. Although predicting the future is tough, this article all makes perfect sense. I plan to start masking again although I’ve be vaccinated for 4.5 months.
Something nobody is talking about is isolation field hospitals that help infected family members isolate away from the vulnerable. This was key to the initial response in Wuhan. We probably can't do it well anymore because it depends on short test turn around times and the increased viral load and transmissibility of the delta variant. But we should try. Perhaps we could have special places for essential workers to live away from vulnerable family members.
45% of all initial cases in Wuhan were family transmission. As soon as the authorities found out you were positive, you got escorted home, and while your family packed you a bag, everybody in the home was tested. Then you went to the isolation place where there were nurses to take care of you if you developed symptoms. They couldn't break the back of the first wave till they did this.
Look, my husband and I are in our 60s, fully vaccinated granted, but we share a small one bedroom, one bath apt in Los Angeles. If one of us gets this thing, we both do. Isolating at home per the Public Health Dept by giving the bedroom to the sick person is a joke. And even though I'm an RN, if I get sick enough from it, there's no way I can provide the care he needs.
You indicate you are being personally attacked by anti-vaxxers. Calling people anti-vaxxers is a personal attack. There are many Drs. and citizens who are not anti-vaccine but rather do not support non-FDA approved mRNA experimental drugs. Emergency measures legislation promoted these drugs BECAUSE they said there were no alternatives. The following organizations provide alternatives including protocols for prevention and early treatment. None of these organizations are anti-vax: bird-group.org, covid19criticalcare.com (FLCCC,) canadiancovidcarealliance.org, canadianhealthalliance.org., americasfrontlinedoctors.org.
Does this take into account the age of people who are vaccinated vs. not? My understanding is that there is a higher rate of vaccination amount the elderly who have been most at risk of severe complications.
I thank you for your wonderful work, this article and its analysis.
I can feel your fear and horror, which I understand and have compassion with, but in these times it seems to me very essential to focus on a more positive and encouraging non-partisan attitude to establish health and peace, certainly without ignoring the problems we are facing.
The "right-left/republican-democratic/Trump-Biden"-duality-identity does not help to establish unity and rather than pointing to this "groupthinking-based mentality" I feel we should focus on the best options for all.
As the "Delta-variant" was first detected in India, we shall therefore look at the different strategies that have been implemented with success or failure.
In states of India, in which early treatment options were endorsed by health authorities the outcome has improved significantly:
Early treatment protocols can complement or substitute failing/missing vaccination.
As there are conflicts of interests within academia and government health institutions I see a great dilemma as the whole topic is politically charged.
Let us leave our confirmation bias behind and listen also to controversially received intellectuals like Bret Weinstein, who in my opinion has been delivering a lot of valuable pointers towards the repurposed drug Ivermectin, which has been - in conjunction with other drugs and supplements - able to prevent and treat COVID to the following extent regarding the highest evaluation of medical evidence using "Cochrane standards":
"Meta-analysis of 15 trials found that ivermectin reduced risk of death compared with no ivermectin (average risk ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.19–0.73; n = 2438; I2 = 49%; moderate-certainty evidence). Low-certainty evidence found that ivermectin prophylaxis reduced COVID-19 infection by an average 86% (95% confidence interval 79%–91%)"
The quality and precision of evidence is extensively discussed in the recent podcast of Bret Weinstein with humanitarian medical doctor Tess Lawrie from the UK, who has been working as an external WHO expert analyst of medical evidence.
Please consider this valuable information as you can reach a lot of people!
World wide there have been doctors and researchers joining hands in a grassroots crowd funded movement to promote early treatment options without partisan behaviour. As Ivermectin does not have a patent anymore there are no immanent conflicts of interest present.
Not considering the factual and/or hypothetical toxicity and real efficacy of the currently authorized vaccines the "western rich nations" are navel gazing and seem to be stuck in patterns of self-concern, but the rest of the world is not even closely reaching vaccination levels as the "developed nations."
Therefore promoting affordable and safe global solutions seems to be of utmost importance.
Evolutionary thinking implies global consiousness and broadening/integrating all perspectives.
Let us please celebrate World Ivermectin Day on the 24th of July together and spread the message of hope and unity together as this wonderful old and mostly safe medicine as been given to us from the soil of Mother Earth.
Like anyone, I hope the math doesn’t work out this badly. We’ve seen examples of this previously, but…? Another thing you may want to consider is which states are actually reporting what, and how many people are actually getting tested. Between states such as Florida changing reporting and testing low across the board… we may be worse off than we think. I also think school in fall is likely to have a bad impact; we’ve done so much assuming around kids and transmission, but it has always seemed likely to me that they transmit widely without (largely) getting sick or that sick.
Question: could the Delta variant mutate again in the unvaccinated population creating another strain and another wave? Or would we run out of people by then!? Only slightly joking on the last part.
I’m also wondering about numbers in relation to our young children who are starting school without vaccines and, at best, are in a district that requires masks, but don’t have any other protocols for prevention…. eating in the cafeteria, playing together and sharing supplies..
I’m in a very conservative county in California and I teach kindergarten (the not able to be vaccinated even if parents would). Those who are deniers would not be able to access this. Adding zeros to numbers and going from “K” to “M” isn’t fathomable for them. Could you or your colleagues develop illustrations for what these numbers look like? I would like to keep trying to make a difference here.
You mention a target got July 15. It is now July 22. How did your prediction go? What are the implications for your thesis?
BTW, have a look at Australia, they are trying a couple of different strategies for their outbreaks of Delta. Victoria and South Australia are going full lockdown, NSW is trying to "manage" it. Last I saw was an epidemiologist in Sydney predicting that even with pretty good systems it will take NSW 13 weeks to stamp it out and without 80%+ compliance with lockdown, it is unstoppable.
Thanks so much, Stephen, for such a well-researched, detailed analysis. I never stopped masking in public, but now I'm going to be even more cautious because of your article.
Hi all, so I'm starting to get personal attacks in the comments from strong anti-vaxxers. I am deleting those as a matter of public service despite them calling me cowardly. I don't want this article to be a platform for disinformation or the degeneration into mudslinging that is happening elsewhere. I understand and emphathize with many concerns of anti-vaxxers, ranging from the corporatization of medicine to not putting enough focus on wellness, but in this case, I am clear that amplifying views that are not adequately grounded in science risks lives and am not willing to provide a platform for it. For some of the thoughtful folks who are championing ivermectin as a treatment, I'm going to do so more research. It seems like the meta-analyses out there were skewed by one large study that has been shown to have falsified data records and was removed. While I hope that it can make a big difference, I'm not yet compelled by what I've read. It was used extensively by India in the last wave and they still had an estimated 1.3M excess deaths, so at the very least, it doesn't seem to be the cure all that the proponents tout. I do think it's worth investigating all promising treatments, including those that are non-drug such as vitamins.
Have some relevant background, as former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Health (That is, US Public Health Service), involved in vaccines and disease outbreaks since 1981 and later, Global VP of a major vaccine company, and consultant to governments and companies about vaccines. I can't dispute any of your calculations because I don't follow them that closely these days, I'm 100% focused on finding ways to reduce hesitancy and improve uptake. However, they sound plausible to me.
There are two things I wish you could do. The first won't be easy: overlay the Unvaccinated Nation (nice term, by the way) with the availability of hospitals to care for those who become ill. Many of those who are not vaccinated are in areas of the country with only the barest of hospital care. When they need tertiary care, they travel to urban centers to get it. Health care systems in rural and smaller-towns are already underfunded and under-resourced (and in some cases non-existent). Those urban centers, which act as a 'tertiary care safety net' for the rest of the state, will not be a viable option if the locals get there first.
Second, spend more time focusing on morbidity. I have been critical of CDC and even friend Fauci about this from the start. Even if someone is not hospitalized, Covid for many people is far worse than the flu (and let's face it, even real flu is bad). The long term consequences are not good (and many are probably still unknown). We've been far too focused on deaths. They're tragic, but so is a long hauler who can't work a job or will be hammered with insurance refusals because of pre-existing conditions.
Nice article. Thanks for giving it this much thought.
I have a Ph. D in population biology. Although predicting the future is tough, this article all makes perfect sense. I plan to start masking again although I’ve be vaccinated for 4.5 months.
Something nobody is talking about is isolation field hospitals that help infected family members isolate away from the vulnerable. This was key to the initial response in Wuhan. We probably can't do it well anymore because it depends on short test turn around times and the increased viral load and transmissibility of the delta variant. But we should try. Perhaps we could have special places for essential workers to live away from vulnerable family members.
45% of all initial cases in Wuhan were family transmission. As soon as the authorities found out you were positive, you got escorted home, and while your family packed you a bag, everybody in the home was tested. Then you went to the isolation place where there were nurses to take care of you if you developed symptoms. They couldn't break the back of the first wave till they did this.
Look, my husband and I are in our 60s, fully vaccinated granted, but we share a small one bedroom, one bath apt in Los Angeles. If one of us gets this thing, we both do. Isolating at home per the Public Health Dept by giving the bedroom to the sick person is a joke. And even though I'm an RN, if I get sick enough from it, there's no way I can provide the care he needs.
You indicate you are being personally attacked by anti-vaxxers. Calling people anti-vaxxers is a personal attack. There are many Drs. and citizens who are not anti-vaccine but rather do not support non-FDA approved mRNA experimental drugs. Emergency measures legislation promoted these drugs BECAUSE they said there were no alternatives. The following organizations provide alternatives including protocols for prevention and early treatment. None of these organizations are anti-vax: bird-group.org, covid19criticalcare.com (FLCCC,) canadiancovidcarealliance.org, canadianhealthalliance.org., americasfrontlinedoctors.org.
Does this take into account the age of people who are vaccinated vs. not? My understanding is that there is a higher rate of vaccination amount the elderly who have been most at risk of severe complications.
Dear beloved american friend and brother Stephen,
I thank you for your wonderful work, this article and its analysis.
I can feel your fear and horror, which I understand and have compassion with, but in these times it seems to me very essential to focus on a more positive and encouraging non-partisan attitude to establish health and peace, certainly without ignoring the problems we are facing.
The "right-left/republican-democratic/Trump-Biden"-duality-identity does not help to establish unity and rather than pointing to this "groupthinking-based mentality" I feel we should focus on the best options for all.
As the "Delta-variant" was first detected in India, we shall therefore look at the different strategies that have been implemented with success or failure.
In states of India, in which early treatment options were endorsed by health authorities the outcome has improved significantly:
https://www.thedesertreview.com/news/national/ivermectin-obliterates-97-percent-of-delhi-cases/article_6a3be6b2-c31f-11eb-836d-2722d2325a08.html
Early treatment protocols can complement or substitute failing/missing vaccination.
As there are conflicts of interests within academia and government health institutions I see a great dilemma as the whole topic is politically charged.
https://c19protocols.com/
Let us leave our confirmation bias behind and listen also to controversially received intellectuals like Bret Weinstein, who in my opinion has been delivering a lot of valuable pointers towards the repurposed drug Ivermectin, which has been - in conjunction with other drugs and supplements - able to prevent and treat COVID to the following extent regarding the highest evaluation of medical evidence using "Cochrane standards":
"Meta-analysis of 15 trials found that ivermectin reduced risk of death compared with no ivermectin (average risk ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.19–0.73; n = 2438; I2 = 49%; moderate-certainty evidence). Low-certainty evidence found that ivermectin prophylaxis reduced COVID-19 infection by an average 86% (95% confidence interval 79%–91%)"
https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Fulltext/2021/08000/Ivermectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.7.aspx
The quality and precision of evidence is extensively discussed in the recent podcast of Bret Weinstein with humanitarian medical doctor Tess Lawrie from the UK, who has been working as an external WHO expert analyst of medical evidence.
Please consider this valuable information as you can reach a lot of people!
https://odysee.com/@BretWeinstein:f/TessLawrie:0
World wide there have been doctors and researchers joining hands in a grassroots crowd funded movement to promote early treatment options without partisan behaviour. As Ivermectin does not have a patent anymore there are no immanent conflicts of interest present.
https://bird-group.org/who-are-bird/
Not considering the factual and/or hypothetical toxicity and real efficacy of the currently authorized vaccines the "western rich nations" are navel gazing and seem to be stuck in patterns of self-concern, but the rest of the world is not even closely reaching vaccination levels as the "developed nations."
Therefore promoting affordable and safe global solutions seems to be of utmost importance.
Evolutionary thinking implies global consiousness and broadening/integrating all perspectives.
Let us please celebrate World Ivermectin Day on the 24th of July together and spread the message of hope and unity together as this wonderful old and mostly safe medicine as been given to us from the soil of Mother Earth.
https://worldivermectinday.org/
Greetings of gratitude from a german brother and medical student!
What do you think of Zach Bush’s many talks? He explains the real cause and needed solutions.
Meanwhile in Plato’s Cave:
let’s chat about the statistical shadows on the ideological wall and enjoy how smart and knowledgeable we sound.
Like anyone, I hope the math doesn’t work out this badly. We’ve seen examples of this previously, but…? Another thing you may want to consider is which states are actually reporting what, and how many people are actually getting tested. Between states such as Florida changing reporting and testing low across the board… we may be worse off than we think. I also think school in fall is likely to have a bad impact; we’ve done so much assuming around kids and transmission, but it has always seemed likely to me that they transmit widely without (largely) getting sick or that sick.
Question: could the Delta variant mutate again in the unvaccinated population creating another strain and another wave? Or would we run out of people by then!? Only slightly joking on the last part.
I’m also wondering about numbers in relation to our young children who are starting school without vaccines and, at best, are in a district that requires masks, but don’t have any other protocols for prevention…. eating in the cafeteria, playing together and sharing supplies..
I’m in a very conservative county in California and I teach kindergarten (the not able to be vaccinated even if parents would). Those who are deniers would not be able to access this. Adding zeros to numbers and going from “K” to “M” isn’t fathomable for them. Could you or your colleagues develop illustrations for what these numbers look like? I would like to keep trying to make a difference here.
You mention a target got July 15. It is now July 22. How did your prediction go? What are the implications for your thesis?
BTW, have a look at Australia, they are trying a couple of different strategies for their outbreaks of Delta. Victoria and South Australia are going full lockdown, NSW is trying to "manage" it. Last I saw was an epidemiologist in Sydney predicting that even with pretty good systems it will take NSW 13 weeks to stamp it out and without 80%+ compliance with lockdown, it is unstoppable.
Thanks so much, Stephen, for such a well-researched, detailed analysis. I never stopped masking in public, but now I'm going to be even more cautious because of your article.
What are your feelings about someone that has gotten the J&J vaccine, getting a booster of Pfizer or Moderna?