Hi all, so I'm starting to get personal attacks in the comments from strong anti-vaxxers. I am deleting those as a matter of public service despite them calling me cowardly. I don't want this article to be a platform for disinformation or the degeneration into mudslinging that is happening elsewhere. I understand and emphathize with many concerns of anti-vaxxers, ranging from the corporatization of medicine to not putting enough focus on wellness, but in this case, I am clear that amplifying views that are not adequately grounded in science risks lives and am not willing to provide a platform for it. For some of the thoughtful folks who are championing ivermectin as a treatment, I'm going to do so more research. It seems like the meta-analyses out there were skewed by one large study that has been shown to have falsified data records and was removed. While I hope that it can make a big difference, I'm not yet compelled by what I've read. It was used extensively by India in the last wave and they still had an estimated 1.3M excess deaths, so at the very least, it doesn't seem to be the cure all that the proponents tout. I do think it's worth investigating all promising treatments, including those that are non-drug such as vitamins.
Take a look at the nicotimanide riboside-based ScandiBio metabolic activator cocktail, which just completed a successful phase 3 trial. It showed very good results in mild to moderate covid infection. While no substitute for vaccination, it can act prophylactically to make the innate immune system more resilient against covid.
I am so grateful for your openness towards researching Ivermectin. :)
It certainly is not a panacea wonder drug but it seems to very helpful in multiple ways.
Except for some contraindications it can be applied to the general population.
The least it would do is to deworm the population. :)
As it has an established risk profile for many years/decades and millions of doses it is estimated to be generally safe.
Reconsidering the evidence without the study which you mentioned, that might be retracted, the author Tess Lawrie actually comments on the potential effect of the retraction of the paper on the analysis within the podcast of Bret Weinstein I mentioned below.
It would reduce certainty/ precision of evidence but surely would not limit the positive signal of overall performance especially not affecting the prophylactic evidence.
Regarding the impact of Ivermectin and early treatment in general on India: it has been dependent on the state government decisions whether it was implemented or not. The health care sector is generally not well financed and even lack of oxygen/material has been reported.
As the Delta variant data of UK indicates low real efficacy of the administered vaccines at least pointing to mortality data we urgently need to find complementary/substitutional options:
In England, the Delta variant predominates. Several tables show how many have fallen ill, are hospitalized and have died. Significant here is Table 5 in the original publication on p. 17, which shows that 257 of 123,620 died (an IFR of 0.2%). Of those who died, 92 or 36% were unvaccinated and 163 or 63% were vaccinated at some stage. Taking only those vaccinated twice, 45% of those who died were fully vaccinated:
This topic is not about partisan attitude and I appreciate everybody like you to care for the wellbeing of humanity.
It just appears to be the case that the currently applied vaccines seem to have a narrow risk-benefit ratio which at the same time is very difficult to estimate as the trials have been unblinded and there are no longitudinal safety profile trials registered right now.
Additionaly the reporting systems lack accuracy and are mostly qualified by underreporting at the same time not indicating causality but just correlation. Despite this the reporting system show clear warning signs.
Controversially discussed and retracted paper about reporting of adverse reactions / efficacy ratio:
Mountain Valley MD has been doing research re: increasing bioavailability of ivermectin for months. They are using 2 FDA approved liposomes and have developed a sublingual and injected form of ivermectin with incredible improvement in bioavailability. They have completed mouse trials, (unlike mRDA 'vaccines'), and human trials are underway. This is a very ethical biotech company looking for solutions for 3rd world countries where vaccine transport issues and availability make vaccines a poor choice. Ironic this company is in Canada where Drs. can be fined for writing a prescription for Ivermectin and pharmacists can refuse to fill the prescription.
Also: for a first hand account of two people experiencing the Delta variant, go to Regina Meredith's Youtube channel and watch Delta Variant Blues. *Important because the symptoms for Delta and different from preceding variants. Also, Drs. gave no advice re: treatment and the couple found their own resources which possibly saved Regina's life. Lots of good info. from people who are not anti-vaxers.
Good for maintaining an open mind on Ivermectin. I am far from convinced but maybe the UK trial can get some more reliable data. From June 23 "Ivermectin to be investigated as a possible treatment for COVID-19 in Oxford’s PRINCIPLE trial" https://tinyurl.com/ftwypvb4
The Egyptian trial has been seriously skewing the results and should never have been included in the first place, it was such an outlier that good practice would have left it out till it had been independently confirmed.
As for India's death toll, you may need to update. According to the report by the Washington-based Center for Global Development, co-authored by India‘s former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, included deaths from all causes since the pandemic’s start through June 2021, excess deaths may be as high as 4.9 million. https://tinyurl.com/2bnu539v
While not all are direct CV19 deaths, many are going to be linked t collapsing what little health care is there already, the numbers will be staggering and those states such as Uttar Pradesh that were touting Ivermectin as part of the success is suppressing the first wave were among the hardest hit by the second.
Yes, I'll be updating the India numbers for my next article. The toll there was simply devastating. And it happened on top of something close to herd immunity from the previous waves, with seropositivity in the 57% range in Delhi. Which makes the prospects even worse for countries with low vaccination and marginal medical facilities.
Have some relevant background, as former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Health (That is, US Public Health Service), involved in vaccines and disease outbreaks since 1981 and later, Global VP of a major vaccine company, and consultant to governments and companies about vaccines. I can't dispute any of your calculations because I don't follow them that closely these days, I'm 100% focused on finding ways to reduce hesitancy and improve uptake. However, they sound plausible to me.
There are two things I wish you could do. The first won't be easy: overlay the Unvaccinated Nation (nice term, by the way) with the availability of hospitals to care for those who become ill. Many of those who are not vaccinated are in areas of the country with only the barest of hospital care. When they need tertiary care, they travel to urban centers to get it. Health care systems in rural and smaller-towns are already underfunded and under-resourced (and in some cases non-existent). Those urban centers, which act as a 'tertiary care safety net' for the rest of the state, will not be a viable option if the locals get there first.
Second, spend more time focusing on morbidity. I have been critical of CDC and even friend Fauci about this from the start. Even if someone is not hospitalized, Covid for many people is far worse than the flu (and let's face it, even real flu is bad). The long term consequences are not good (and many are probably still unknown). We've been far too focused on deaths. They're tragic, but so is a long hauler who can't work a job or will be hammered with insurance refusals because of pre-existing conditions.
Nice article. Thanks for giving it this much thought.
Very helpful feedback. I'm working on a next article and will delve a bit more into the projections for hospitals. I agree that focusing more on long-term consequences is important to increase uptake for younger folks in particular.
As a pediatrician, I wholeheartedly agree that we need to talk more about morbidity. Death in children and teens is low, which gives people the false sense of security that they just get a cold. We are still learning about long term symptoms and have no idea what potential late effects will be 5, 10, 20+ years from now. Too many parents think the vaccine is not worth their kids getting, but we need to somehow convince them that it is - not just for herd immunity, but to protect them against long term complications. I do realize that the rest of the world needs the vaccine too, but the doses we have in the US being wasted is a travesty.
I have a Ph. D in population biology. Although predicting the future is tough, this article all makes perfect sense. I plan to start masking again although I’ve be vaccinated for 4.5 months.
Something nobody is talking about is isolation field hospitals that help infected family members isolate away from the vulnerable. This was key to the initial response in Wuhan. We probably can't do it well anymore because it depends on short test turn around times and the increased viral load and transmissibility of the delta variant. But we should try. Perhaps we could have special places for essential workers to live away from vulnerable family members.
45% of all initial cases in Wuhan were family transmission. As soon as the authorities found out you were positive, you got escorted home, and while your family packed you a bag, everybody in the home was tested. Then you went to the isolation place where there were nurses to take care of you if you developed symptoms. They couldn't break the back of the first wave till they did this.
Look, my husband and I are in our 60s, fully vaccinated granted, but we share a small one bedroom, one bath apt in Los Angeles. If one of us gets this thing, we both do. Isolating at home per the Public Health Dept by giving the bedroom to the sick person is a joke. And even though I'm an RN, if I get sick enough from it, there's no way I can provide the care he needs.
You indicate you are being personally attacked by anti-vaxxers. Calling people anti-vaxxers is a personal attack. There are many Drs. and citizens who are not anti-vaccine but rather do not support non-FDA approved mRNA experimental drugs. Emergency measures legislation promoted these drugs BECAUSE they said there were no alternatives. The following organizations provide alternatives including protocols for prevention and early treatment. None of these organizations are anti-vax: bird-group.org, covid19criticalcare.com (FLCCC,) canadiancovidcarealliance.org, canadianhealthalliance.org., americasfrontlinedoctors.org.
Does this take into account the age of people who are vaccinated vs. not? My understanding is that there is a higher rate of vaccination amount the elderly who have been most at risk of severe complications.
I thank you for your wonderful work, this article and its analysis.
I can feel your fear and horror, which I understand and have compassion with, but in these times it seems to me very essential to focus on a more positive and encouraging non-partisan attitude to establish health and peace, certainly without ignoring the problems we are facing.
The "right-left/republican-democratic/Trump-Biden"-duality-identity does not help to establish unity and rather than pointing to this "groupthinking-based mentality" I feel we should focus on the best options for all.
As the "Delta-variant" was first detected in India, we shall therefore look at the different strategies that have been implemented with success or failure.
In states of India, in which early treatment options were endorsed by health authorities the outcome has improved significantly:
Early treatment protocols can complement or substitute failing/missing vaccination.
As there are conflicts of interests within academia and government health institutions I see a great dilemma as the whole topic is politically charged.
Let us leave our confirmation bias behind and listen also to controversially received intellectuals like Bret Weinstein, who in my opinion has been delivering a lot of valuable pointers towards the repurposed drug Ivermectin, which has been - in conjunction with other drugs and supplements - able to prevent and treat COVID to the following extent regarding the highest evaluation of medical evidence using "Cochrane standards":
"Meta-analysis of 15 trials found that ivermectin reduced risk of death compared with no ivermectin (average risk ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.19–0.73; n = 2438; I2 = 49%; moderate-certainty evidence). Low-certainty evidence found that ivermectin prophylaxis reduced COVID-19 infection by an average 86% (95% confidence interval 79%–91%)"
The quality and precision of evidence is extensively discussed in the recent podcast of Bret Weinstein with humanitarian medical doctor Tess Lawrie from the UK, who has been working as an external WHO expert analyst of medical evidence.
Please consider this valuable information as you can reach a lot of people!
World wide there have been doctors and researchers joining hands in a grassroots crowd funded movement to promote early treatment options without partisan behaviour. As Ivermectin does not have a patent anymore there are no immanent conflicts of interest present.
Not considering the factual and/or hypothetical toxicity and real efficacy of the currently authorized vaccines the "western rich nations" are navel gazing and seem to be stuck in patterns of self-concern, but the rest of the world is not even closely reaching vaccination levels as the "developed nations."
Therefore promoting affordable and safe global solutions seems to be of utmost importance.
Evolutionary thinking implies global consiousness and broadening/integrating all perspectives.
Let us please celebrate World Ivermectin Day on the 24th of July together and spread the message of hope and unity together as this wonderful old and mostly safe medicine as been given to us from the soil of Mother Earth.
Thank you for your prudent assessment and resources. Also see:
YouTube: “In Discussion with Jackie Stone - Full Interview”, (31:58) for Zimbabwe’s story. Also: bird-group.org May 23/21 Forum inc. Dr. Stone’s presentation, (20:00) Also: covid19criticalcare.com: click Videos & Press , Videos/Tutorials, Weekly Webinars Apr 7/21 Dr Eric Osgood talks to Dr. Jackie Stone of Zimbabwe. *
YouTube: COVID-19 Coincidence of Anti-Scabies Medication in Toronto Nursing Home - Turning Point? (15:35) search Dr. Jennifer Hibberd on thecompleteguidetohealth.com.
Ivermectin: 40 yr old drug used for parasitic infections in humans & animals. In humans, @ 4 billion doses have been given; minimal side effects. It is on The World Health Organization’s (WHO) Essential Medicine List; it’s discoverers received a Nobel Prize. A massive amount of evidence shows it is a key component in the prevention/treatment of Co-vid. Despite safety, low cost & effectiveness, WHO will NOT recommend it. Because The Gates Foundation is the 2nd largest contributor to WHO, it is believed conflict of interest re: vaccine promotion has compromised WHO. *Many global/national media signed an agreement to only report WHO recommendations.
*May 25/21 Indian Bar Association filed a claim against WHO for misinformation (bird-group.org)
Other countries using Ivermectin with dramatic results include: Mexico, Panama,, Beleize, Slovakia, South Africa, Japan, Honduras, Macedonia, India, Czech Republic, Bolivia, etc. For a summary of rapid reduction of cases in Peru: - Results of using Ivermectin for mass treatment - David Scheim, (5:01) medicalupdateonline.com Following these incredible results a change in government chose to follow WHO guidelines; the country regressed. NOTE: Ivermectin protects for a period of time, not indefinitely. ‘ Vaccines’ have adverse effects. Ivermectin doesn’t.
For a global picture: bird-group.org. Under ‘Conference’, presentations for a lay audience: Drs’ Mobeen, Tess Lawrie, Pierre Kory, Hector Carvello, David Chesler, (seniors). * See Tess Lawrie’s final talk (8:10) for a succinct statement re: consequence of corruption & censorship. An information pamphlet for distribution is provided.
Go to covid19criticalcare.com (FLCCC Alliance) for extensive resources. Under Videos, then Weekly Webinars: May 12/21: “How public health agencies are manufacturing uncertainty…” First 10 min.: graphs showing efficacy of Ivermectin in Mexico, (inc. comparison to vaccine in Israel) & use/response in other countries.
I think Zach has a lot of charisma and is strong when focusing just on the gut biome but it is often wildly irresponsible in his claims about Covid. One article that I saw fact-checked had at least 20 provable false things in it. He sounds great on the surface but this is not his zone of expertise and I think he oversteps the evidence in dramatic ways.
Zach Bush helps us to understand that we need to improve our soil while eliminating chemicals sprayed on lawns and food in order to help our gut biome and, thus, improve our immune system. Our government (which has good intentions) should be educating the public about healthy eating and permaculture and how to be in balance with nature. More information about prevention is needed. What about vitamin C, Zinc, Iodine, Nebulizer, etc.? Why are reputable doctors censored and prevented from sharing relevant essential information? What is the fear of listening to and researching alternative views? Where do we draw the line with censorship?
Otherwise, we are continually dependent on drugs that have side effects. If the immune system is weak, there will be more chance of becoming ill with any virus. If we don’t improve our ecosystem, there will be one virus after another. No amount of vaccines will be able to stop that. What about herbs, acupuncture, diaphragmatic breathing, relaxation techniques, meditation, etc.? What about a Homeopathic prophylaxis vaccine that protects without the side effects of the current vaccines? There is greed and ignorance in much of big pharma. Homeopathy and many other preventative and healing alternatives are very inexpensive but few are educated or trained in their use or efficacy. More consciousness and awareness and education is needed as to the cause of viruses and illnesses and how we can mitigate and prevent rather than suppress symptoms with drugs that have side effects. We need to honor our unity rather than separateness by the awareness that we are a ‘whole’ being and not just a physical body.
Like anyone, I hope the math doesn’t work out this badly. We’ve seen examples of this previously, but…? Another thing you may want to consider is which states are actually reporting what, and how many people are actually getting tested. Between states such as Florida changing reporting and testing low across the board… we may be worse off than we think. I also think school in fall is likely to have a bad impact; we’ve done so much assuming around kids and transmission, but it has always seemed likely to me that they transmit widely without (largely) getting sick or that sick.
Question: could the Delta variant mutate again in the unvaccinated population creating another strain and another wave? Or would we run out of people by then!? Only slightly joking on the last part.
Yes it can. There is already a Delta plus and I've been hearing about a Kapha that could be still more infectious. The point is, the more viruses replicating in the wild, the more mutations, the more likely still more infectious and/or deadly versions arise. Which is why the herd immunity approach isn't wise overall
Viruses can and do mutate in any host they replicate in, vaccinated or unvaccinated. Vaccinated people, however, are unlikely to carry the same viral load as the unvaccinated, or for as long; thus, while the virus can and does mutate in both populations, the number of mutations arising from a fully vaccinated population should be less. I hope that helps.
What is the alternative if herd immunity isn’t the best approach? I’m in Canada and I know we have a much higher vaccinated population than in the States but it’s not 100%
Basically to shut down transmission with a combination of vaccination, masking, social distancing, testing and contact tracing. Many countries did so in the first waves. It will be harder now but still preferable to mass sickness and increased likelihood of new variants
I’m also wondering about numbers in relation to our young children who are starting school without vaccines and, at best, are in a district that requires masks, but don’t have any other protocols for prevention…. eating in the cafeteria, playing together and sharing supplies..
I’m in a very conservative county in California and I teach kindergarten (the not able to be vaccinated even if parents would). Those who are deniers would not be able to access this. Adding zeros to numbers and going from “K” to “M” isn’t fathomable for them. Could you or your colleagues develop illustrations for what these numbers look like? I would like to keep trying to make a difference here.
You mention a target got July 15. It is now July 22. How did your prediction go? What are the implications for your thesis?
BTW, have a look at Australia, they are trying a couple of different strategies for their outbreaks of Delta. Victoria and South Australia are going full lockdown, NSW is trying to "manage" it. Last I saw was an epidemiologist in Sydney predicting that even with pretty good systems it will take NSW 13 weeks to stamp it out and without 80%+ compliance with lockdown, it is unstoppable.
Thanks so much, Stephen, for such a well-researched, detailed analysis. I never stopped masking in public, but now I'm going to be even more cautious because of your article.
I don't have specific expertise but have read more positive things about it. Apparently Germany is doing more mixing although I don't think the FDA has supported yet. I would ask a doctor.
Hi all, so I'm starting to get personal attacks in the comments from strong anti-vaxxers. I am deleting those as a matter of public service despite them calling me cowardly. I don't want this article to be a platform for disinformation or the degeneration into mudslinging that is happening elsewhere. I understand and emphathize with many concerns of anti-vaxxers, ranging from the corporatization of medicine to not putting enough focus on wellness, but in this case, I am clear that amplifying views that are not adequately grounded in science risks lives and am not willing to provide a platform for it. For some of the thoughtful folks who are championing ivermectin as a treatment, I'm going to do so more research. It seems like the meta-analyses out there were skewed by one large study that has been shown to have falsified data records and was removed. While I hope that it can make a big difference, I'm not yet compelled by what I've read. It was used extensively by India in the last wave and they still had an estimated 1.3M excess deaths, so at the very least, it doesn't seem to be the cure all that the proponents tout. I do think it's worth investigating all promising treatments, including those that are non-drug such as vitamins.
Take a look at the nicotimanide riboside-based ScandiBio metabolic activator cocktail, which just completed a successful phase 3 trial. It showed very good results in mild to moderate covid infection. While no substitute for vaccination, it can act prophylactically to make the innate immune system more resilient against covid.
Dear Stephen,
I am so grateful for your openness towards researching Ivermectin. :)
It certainly is not a panacea wonder drug but it seems to very helpful in multiple ways.
Except for some contraindications it can be applied to the general population.
The least it would do is to deworm the population. :)
As it has an established risk profile for many years/decades and millions of doses it is estimated to be generally safe.
Reconsidering the evidence without the study which you mentioned, that might be retracted, the author Tess Lawrie actually comments on the potential effect of the retraction of the paper on the analysis within the podcast of Bret Weinstein I mentioned below.
It would reduce certainty/ precision of evidence but surely would not limit the positive signal of overall performance especially not affecting the prophylactic evidence.
Regarding the impact of Ivermectin and early treatment in general on India: it has been dependent on the state government decisions whether it was implemented or not. The health care sector is generally not well financed and even lack of oxygen/material has been reported.
As the Delta variant data of UK indicates low real efficacy of the administered vaccines at least pointing to mortality data we urgently need to find complementary/substitutional options:
In England, the Delta variant predominates. Several tables show how many have fallen ill, are hospitalized and have died. Significant here is Table 5 in the original publication on p. 17, which shows that 257 of 123,620 died (an IFR of 0.2%). Of those who died, 92 or 36% were unvaccinated and 163 or 63% were vaccinated at some stage. Taking only those vaccinated twice, 45% of those who died were fully vaccinated:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Early treatment options:
https://c19early.com/
Review of ivermectin safety:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31960060/
Ivermectin's mechanisms of action:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41429-021-00430-5
This topic is not about partisan attitude and I appreciate everybody like you to care for the wellbeing of humanity.
It just appears to be the case that the currently applied vaccines seem to have a narrow risk-benefit ratio which at the same time is very difficult to estimate as the trials have been unblinded and there are no longitudinal safety profile trials registered right now.
Additionaly the reporting systems lack accuracy and are mostly qualified by underreporting at the same time not indicating causality but just correlation. Despite this the reporting system show clear warning signs.
Controversially discussed and retracted paper about reporting of adverse reactions / efficacy ratio:
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/693/htm
https://retractionwatch.com/2021/07/02/journal-retracts-paper-claiming-two-deaths-from-covid-19-vaccination-for-every-three-prevented-cases/
Sending you a virtual hug for your service to all of us!
Love and gratitude from Germany!
Mountain Valley MD has been doing research re: increasing bioavailability of ivermectin for months. They are using 2 FDA approved liposomes and have developed a sublingual and injected form of ivermectin with incredible improvement in bioavailability. They have completed mouse trials, (unlike mRDA 'vaccines'), and human trials are underway. This is a very ethical biotech company looking for solutions for 3rd world countries where vaccine transport issues and availability make vaccines a poor choice. Ironic this company is in Canada where Drs. can be fined for writing a prescription for Ivermectin and pharmacists can refuse to fill the prescription.
Also: for a first hand account of two people experiencing the Delta variant, go to Regina Meredith's Youtube channel and watch Delta Variant Blues. *Important because the symptoms for Delta and different from preceding variants. Also, Drs. gave no advice re: treatment and the couple found their own resources which possibly saved Regina's life. Lots of good info. from people who are not anti-vaxers.
Good for maintaining an open mind on Ivermectin. I am far from convinced but maybe the UK trial can get some more reliable data. From June 23 "Ivermectin to be investigated as a possible treatment for COVID-19 in Oxford’s PRINCIPLE trial" https://tinyurl.com/ftwypvb4
The Egyptian trial has been seriously skewing the results and should never have been included in the first place, it was such an outlier that good practice would have left it out till it had been independently confirmed.
As for India's death toll, you may need to update. According to the report by the Washington-based Center for Global Development, co-authored by India‘s former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, included deaths from all causes since the pandemic’s start through June 2021, excess deaths may be as high as 4.9 million. https://tinyurl.com/2bnu539v
While not all are direct CV19 deaths, many are going to be linked t collapsing what little health care is there already, the numbers will be staggering and those states such as Uttar Pradesh that were touting Ivermectin as part of the success is suppressing the first wave were among the hardest hit by the second.
Yes, I'll be updating the India numbers for my next article. The toll there was simply devastating. And it happened on top of something close to herd immunity from the previous waves, with seropositivity in the 57% range in Delhi. Which makes the prospects even worse for countries with low vaccination and marginal medical facilities.
Have some relevant background, as former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Health (That is, US Public Health Service), involved in vaccines and disease outbreaks since 1981 and later, Global VP of a major vaccine company, and consultant to governments and companies about vaccines. I can't dispute any of your calculations because I don't follow them that closely these days, I'm 100% focused on finding ways to reduce hesitancy and improve uptake. However, they sound plausible to me.
There are two things I wish you could do. The first won't be easy: overlay the Unvaccinated Nation (nice term, by the way) with the availability of hospitals to care for those who become ill. Many of those who are not vaccinated are in areas of the country with only the barest of hospital care. When they need tertiary care, they travel to urban centers to get it. Health care systems in rural and smaller-towns are already underfunded and under-resourced (and in some cases non-existent). Those urban centers, which act as a 'tertiary care safety net' for the rest of the state, will not be a viable option if the locals get there first.
Second, spend more time focusing on morbidity. I have been critical of CDC and even friend Fauci about this from the start. Even if someone is not hospitalized, Covid for many people is far worse than the flu (and let's face it, even real flu is bad). The long term consequences are not good (and many are probably still unknown). We've been far too focused on deaths. They're tragic, but so is a long hauler who can't work a job or will be hammered with insurance refusals because of pre-existing conditions.
Nice article. Thanks for giving it this much thought.
Very helpful feedback. I'm working on a next article and will delve a bit more into the projections for hospitals. I agree that focusing more on long-term consequences is important to increase uptake for younger folks in particular.
As a pediatrician, I wholeheartedly agree that we need to talk more about morbidity. Death in children and teens is low, which gives people the false sense of security that they just get a cold. We are still learning about long term symptoms and have no idea what potential late effects will be 5, 10, 20+ years from now. Too many parents think the vaccine is not worth their kids getting, but we need to somehow convince them that it is - not just for herd immunity, but to protect them against long term complications. I do realize that the rest of the world needs the vaccine too, but the doses we have in the US being wasted is a travesty.
I have a Ph. D in population biology. Although predicting the future is tough, this article all makes perfect sense. I plan to start masking again although I’ve be vaccinated for 4.5 months.
Something nobody is talking about is isolation field hospitals that help infected family members isolate away from the vulnerable. This was key to the initial response in Wuhan. We probably can't do it well anymore because it depends on short test turn around times and the increased viral load and transmissibility of the delta variant. But we should try. Perhaps we could have special places for essential workers to live away from vulnerable family members.
45% of all initial cases in Wuhan were family transmission. As soon as the authorities found out you were positive, you got escorted home, and while your family packed you a bag, everybody in the home was tested. Then you went to the isolation place where there were nurses to take care of you if you developed symptoms. They couldn't break the back of the first wave till they did this.
Look, my husband and I are in our 60s, fully vaccinated granted, but we share a small one bedroom, one bath apt in Los Angeles. If one of us gets this thing, we both do. Isolating at home per the Public Health Dept by giving the bedroom to the sick person is a joke. And even though I'm an RN, if I get sick enough from it, there's no way I can provide the care he needs.
You indicate you are being personally attacked by anti-vaxxers. Calling people anti-vaxxers is a personal attack. There are many Drs. and citizens who are not anti-vaccine but rather do not support non-FDA approved mRNA experimental drugs. Emergency measures legislation promoted these drugs BECAUSE they said there were no alternatives. The following organizations provide alternatives including protocols for prevention and early treatment. None of these organizations are anti-vax: bird-group.org, covid19criticalcare.com (FLCCC,) canadiancovidcarealliance.org, canadianhealthalliance.org., americasfrontlinedoctors.org.
Does this take into account the age of people who are vaccinated vs. not? My understanding is that there is a higher rate of vaccination amount the elderly who have been most at risk of severe complications.
Dear beloved american friend and brother Stephen,
I thank you for your wonderful work, this article and its analysis.
I can feel your fear and horror, which I understand and have compassion with, but in these times it seems to me very essential to focus on a more positive and encouraging non-partisan attitude to establish health and peace, certainly without ignoring the problems we are facing.
The "right-left/republican-democratic/Trump-Biden"-duality-identity does not help to establish unity and rather than pointing to this "groupthinking-based mentality" I feel we should focus on the best options for all.
As the "Delta-variant" was first detected in India, we shall therefore look at the different strategies that have been implemented with success or failure.
In states of India, in which early treatment options were endorsed by health authorities the outcome has improved significantly:
https://www.thedesertreview.com/news/national/ivermectin-obliterates-97-percent-of-delhi-cases/article_6a3be6b2-c31f-11eb-836d-2722d2325a08.html
Early treatment protocols can complement or substitute failing/missing vaccination.
As there are conflicts of interests within academia and government health institutions I see a great dilemma as the whole topic is politically charged.
https://c19protocols.com/
Let us leave our confirmation bias behind and listen also to controversially received intellectuals like Bret Weinstein, who in my opinion has been delivering a lot of valuable pointers towards the repurposed drug Ivermectin, which has been - in conjunction with other drugs and supplements - able to prevent and treat COVID to the following extent regarding the highest evaluation of medical evidence using "Cochrane standards":
"Meta-analysis of 15 trials found that ivermectin reduced risk of death compared with no ivermectin (average risk ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.19–0.73; n = 2438; I2 = 49%; moderate-certainty evidence). Low-certainty evidence found that ivermectin prophylaxis reduced COVID-19 infection by an average 86% (95% confidence interval 79%–91%)"
https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Fulltext/2021/08000/Ivermectin_for_Prevention_and_Treatment_of.7.aspx
The quality and precision of evidence is extensively discussed in the recent podcast of Bret Weinstein with humanitarian medical doctor Tess Lawrie from the UK, who has been working as an external WHO expert analyst of medical evidence.
Please consider this valuable information as you can reach a lot of people!
https://odysee.com/@BretWeinstein:f/TessLawrie:0
World wide there have been doctors and researchers joining hands in a grassroots crowd funded movement to promote early treatment options without partisan behaviour. As Ivermectin does not have a patent anymore there are no immanent conflicts of interest present.
https://bird-group.org/who-are-bird/
Not considering the factual and/or hypothetical toxicity and real efficacy of the currently authorized vaccines the "western rich nations" are navel gazing and seem to be stuck in patterns of self-concern, but the rest of the world is not even closely reaching vaccination levels as the "developed nations."
Therefore promoting affordable and safe global solutions seems to be of utmost importance.
Evolutionary thinking implies global consiousness and broadening/integrating all perspectives.
Let us please celebrate World Ivermectin Day on the 24th of July together and spread the message of hope and unity together as this wonderful old and mostly safe medicine as been given to us from the soil of Mother Earth.
https://worldivermectinday.org/
Greetings of gratitude from a german brother and medical student!
Thank you for your prudent assessment and resources. Also see:
YouTube: “In Discussion with Jackie Stone - Full Interview”, (31:58) for Zimbabwe’s story. Also: bird-group.org May 23/21 Forum inc. Dr. Stone’s presentation, (20:00) Also: covid19criticalcare.com: click Videos & Press , Videos/Tutorials, Weekly Webinars Apr 7/21 Dr Eric Osgood talks to Dr. Jackie Stone of Zimbabwe. *
YouTube: COVID-19 Coincidence of Anti-Scabies Medication in Toronto Nursing Home - Turning Point? (15:35) search Dr. Jennifer Hibberd on thecompleteguidetohealth.com.
Ivermectin: 40 yr old drug used for parasitic infections in humans & animals. In humans, @ 4 billion doses have been given; minimal side effects. It is on The World Health Organization’s (WHO) Essential Medicine List; it’s discoverers received a Nobel Prize. A massive amount of evidence shows it is a key component in the prevention/treatment of Co-vid. Despite safety, low cost & effectiveness, WHO will NOT recommend it. Because The Gates Foundation is the 2nd largest contributor to WHO, it is believed conflict of interest re: vaccine promotion has compromised WHO. *Many global/national media signed an agreement to only report WHO recommendations.
*May 25/21 Indian Bar Association filed a claim against WHO for misinformation (bird-group.org)
Other countries using Ivermectin with dramatic results include: Mexico, Panama,, Beleize, Slovakia, South Africa, Japan, Honduras, Macedonia, India, Czech Republic, Bolivia, etc. For a summary of rapid reduction of cases in Peru: - Results of using Ivermectin for mass treatment - David Scheim, (5:01) medicalupdateonline.com Following these incredible results a change in government chose to follow WHO guidelines; the country regressed. NOTE: Ivermectin protects for a period of time, not indefinitely. ‘ Vaccines’ have adverse effects. Ivermectin doesn’t.
For a global picture: bird-group.org. Under ‘Conference’, presentations for a lay audience: Drs’ Mobeen, Tess Lawrie, Pierre Kory, Hector Carvello, David Chesler, (seniors). * See Tess Lawrie’s final talk (8:10) for a succinct statement re: consequence of corruption & censorship. An information pamphlet for distribution is provided.
Go to covid19criticalcare.com (FLCCC Alliance) for extensive resources. Under Videos, then Weekly Webinars: May 12/21: “How public health agencies are manufacturing uncertainty…” First 10 min.: graphs showing efficacy of Ivermectin in Mexico, (inc. comparison to vaccine in Israel) & use/response in other countries.
Canadian: canadiancovidcarealliance.org. video: Co-vid 10 Canada Responds and at canadianhealthalliance.org Under About Us & Resources, find links to organizations providing uncensored information.
What do you think of Zach Bush’s many talks? He explains the real cause and needed solutions.
I think Zach has a lot of charisma and is strong when focusing just on the gut biome but it is often wildly irresponsible in his claims about Covid. One article that I saw fact-checked had at least 20 provable false things in it. He sounds great on the surface but this is not his zone of expertise and I think he oversteps the evidence in dramatic ways.
Zach Bush helps us to understand that we need to improve our soil while eliminating chemicals sprayed on lawns and food in order to help our gut biome and, thus, improve our immune system. Our government (which has good intentions) should be educating the public about healthy eating and permaculture and how to be in balance with nature. More information about prevention is needed. What about vitamin C, Zinc, Iodine, Nebulizer, etc.? Why are reputable doctors censored and prevented from sharing relevant essential information? What is the fear of listening to and researching alternative views? Where do we draw the line with censorship?
Otherwise, we are continually dependent on drugs that have side effects. If the immune system is weak, there will be more chance of becoming ill with any virus. If we don’t improve our ecosystem, there will be one virus after another. No amount of vaccines will be able to stop that. What about herbs, acupuncture, diaphragmatic breathing, relaxation techniques, meditation, etc.? What about a Homeopathic prophylaxis vaccine that protects without the side effects of the current vaccines? There is greed and ignorance in much of big pharma. Homeopathy and many other preventative and healing alternatives are very inexpensive but few are educated or trained in their use or efficacy. More consciousness and awareness and education is needed as to the cause of viruses and illnesses and how we can mitigate and prevent rather than suppress symptoms with drugs that have side effects. We need to honor our unity rather than separateness by the awareness that we are a ‘whole’ being and not just a physical body.
Meanwhile in Plato’s Cave:
let’s chat about the statistical shadows on the ideological wall and enjoy how smart and knowledgeable we sound.
Like anyone, I hope the math doesn’t work out this badly. We’ve seen examples of this previously, but…? Another thing you may want to consider is which states are actually reporting what, and how many people are actually getting tested. Between states such as Florida changing reporting and testing low across the board… we may be worse off than we think. I also think school in fall is likely to have a bad impact; we’ve done so much assuming around kids and transmission, but it has always seemed likely to me that they transmit widely without (largely) getting sick or that sick.
Good points.
Question: could the Delta variant mutate again in the unvaccinated population creating another strain and another wave? Or would we run out of people by then!? Only slightly joking on the last part.
Yes it can. There is already a Delta plus and I've been hearing about a Kapha that could be still more infectious. The point is, the more viruses replicating in the wild, the more mutations, the more likely still more infectious and/or deadly versions arise. Which is why the herd immunity approach isn't wise overall
Does the virus only mutate in the unvaccinated? I’ve heard this implied several times and would like to know if it’s scientifically true.
Viruses can and do mutate in any host they replicate in, vaccinated or unvaccinated. Vaccinated people, however, are unlikely to carry the same viral load as the unvaccinated, or for as long; thus, while the virus can and does mutate in both populations, the number of mutations arising from a fully vaccinated population should be less. I hope that helps.
What is the alternative if herd immunity isn’t the best approach? I’m in Canada and I know we have a much higher vaccinated population than in the States but it’s not 100%
Basically to shut down transmission with a combination of vaccination, masking, social distancing, testing and contact tracing. Many countries did so in the first waves. It will be harder now but still preferable to mass sickness and increased likelihood of new variants
I’m also wondering about numbers in relation to our young children who are starting school without vaccines and, at best, are in a district that requires masks, but don’t have any other protocols for prevention…. eating in the cafeteria, playing together and sharing supplies..
I’m in a very conservative county in California and I teach kindergarten (the not able to be vaccinated even if parents would). Those who are deniers would not be able to access this. Adding zeros to numbers and going from “K” to “M” isn’t fathomable for them. Could you or your colleagues develop illustrations for what these numbers look like? I would like to keep trying to make a difference here.
You mention a target got July 15. It is now July 22. How did your prediction go? What are the implications for your thesis?
BTW, have a look at Australia, they are trying a couple of different strategies for their outbreaks of Delta. Victoria and South Australia are going full lockdown, NSW is trying to "manage" it. Last I saw was an epidemiologist in Sydney predicting that even with pretty good systems it will take NSW 13 weeks to stamp it out and without 80%+ compliance with lockdown, it is unstoppable.
It's actually going faster than this article predicted as we hit 40K cases last Friday. Working on a second article now...
When you have finished the second article where can I find it?
Thanks so much, Stephen, for such a well-researched, detailed analysis. I never stopped masking in public, but now I'm going to be even more cautious because of your article.
What are your feelings about someone that has gotten the J&J vaccine, getting a booster of Pfizer or Moderna?
I don't have specific expertise but have read more positive things about it. Apparently Germany is doing more mixing although I don't think the FDA has supported yet. I would ask a doctor.