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Stephen Dinan's avatar

Hi all, so I'm starting to get personal attacks in the comments from strong anti-vaxxers. I am deleting those as a matter of public service despite them calling me cowardly. I don't want this article to be a platform for disinformation or the degeneration into mudslinging that is happening elsewhere. I understand and emphathize with many concerns of anti-vaxxers, ranging from the corporatization of medicine to not putting enough focus on wellness, but in this case, I am clear that amplifying views that are not adequately grounded in science risks lives and am not willing to provide a platform for it. For some of the thoughtful folks who are championing ivermectin as a treatment, I'm going to do so more research. It seems like the meta-analyses out there were skewed by one large study that has been shown to have falsified data records and was removed. While I hope that it can make a big difference, I'm not yet compelled by what I've read. It was used extensively by India in the last wave and they still had an estimated 1.3M excess deaths, so at the very least, it doesn't seem to be the cure all that the proponents tout. I do think it's worth investigating all promising treatments, including those that are non-drug such as vitamins.

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Glenna Crooks's avatar

Have some relevant background, as former Deputy Assistant Secretary for Health (That is, US Public Health Service), involved in vaccines and disease outbreaks since 1981 and later, Global VP of a major vaccine company, and consultant to governments and companies about vaccines. I can't dispute any of your calculations because I don't follow them that closely these days, I'm 100% focused on finding ways to reduce hesitancy and improve uptake. However, they sound plausible to me.

There are two things I wish you could do. The first won't be easy: overlay the Unvaccinated Nation (nice term, by the way) with the availability of hospitals to care for those who become ill. Many of those who are not vaccinated are in areas of the country with only the barest of hospital care. When they need tertiary care, they travel to urban centers to get it. Health care systems in rural and smaller-towns are already underfunded and under-resourced (and in some cases non-existent). Those urban centers, which act as a 'tertiary care safety net' for the rest of the state, will not be a viable option if the locals get there first.

Second, spend more time focusing on morbidity. I have been critical of CDC and even friend Fauci about this from the start. Even if someone is not hospitalized, Covid for many people is far worse than the flu (and let's face it, even real flu is bad). The long term consequences are not good (and many are probably still unknown). We've been far too focused on deaths. They're tragic, but so is a long hauler who can't work a job or will be hammered with insurance refusals because of pre-existing conditions.

Nice article. Thanks for giving it this much thought.

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