10 Reasons Kamala and Tim Are Headed for a Win

It can be difficult to let go of fear. For too long, the Trump phenomenon seemed unstoppable.

But the 2024 Presidential race has fundamentally changed and I think ten key things, if we all continue to amplify them, are going to propel a Democratic victory.

First, after years of malaise, the joy that has been liberated in the Democratic party is healing, motivating, and empowering. Kamala’s campaign is exuberant and adding Tim Walz brought a next level of happiness and warmth that is almost unprecedented in our political history. The campaign has become magnetic, fun, and infectious, a fact underscored by the raucous good fun of the DNC convention. Joy spurs volunteerism, engagement, and votes.

Second, cultural leaders are backing Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in droves. From celebrities to singers to TikTok influencers, there’s been a massive shift in culture leaders to get behind the campaign and make it into a movement. Many people with huge influence are putting that influence behind Kamala. Even the stodgiest among us have a desire to be associated with what is cool, trendy, and socially approved. Kamala’s campaign is increasingly the cool place to be, even for disenchanted Republicans, which is going to drive more momentum in all online platforms.

Third, all of the arguments and attacks on Biden as too old for the job are starting to boomerang on Trump, who has become the unsteady, waning elder in the race. This may accelerate after the September 10th debate. His pacing has slowed and there is evidence of cognitive decline in objective analyses of his speech patterns. This discrepancy between the vigor of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s incoherence will become more evident in the homestretch, I believe.

Fourth, with the much older candidate at the top of the ticket, the Republican VP slot has become much more essential than before and Vance has been largely met with disapproval. By most relevant metrics, Governor Walz has far more of the seasoned leadership experience from military to the governorship to step in as President if needed, whereas Vance is far less ready. Varsity vs. JV is not only a meme, it’s also an appropriate comparison. As Trump’s age risks become more apparent, as I think will happen in the debate, the VP comparison will become more and more relevant.

Fifth, Trump is highly motivated to defend his ego and pride and he has already demonstrated a difficulty with staying on policy messages. As more of the metrics show him having less momentum (from fundraising to stadium crowds), he’s likely to increase the nasty insults and focus on personal comparisons rather than issues that might appeal to swing voters. By bringing out his bully, Kamala’s campaign can remind voters what they didn’t like about his administration.

Sixth, the Democratic team has been effective at taking the air out of the Trump balloon by making Trump and his allies less scary and more… weird. The fear that has been a driver of mobilization against Trump has a downside in that it actually can disempower people. The new relationship with the dangerous qualities of Trump is actually more motivating and empowering.

Seventh, the sheer number of contributors to the Harris-Walz campaign in this phase (including more than 3 million donors in August alone!) is astounding, as is the number of volunteers. As the momentum keeps building through the fall season, this army can grow substantially. Each donor only needs to convince a small circle of friends and allies to vote in the same direction, so having all those passionate donors matters.

Eighth, it’s clear that a great many Republicans at the upper echeolon of power, money, and influence have tired of Trump and see their support through a transactional lens. There’s growing eagerness to turn the page and a recognition that it will be better for the long haul to lose this election. This growing recognition may lead to a snowballing of defections or simply silence as the wheels start to come off and trendlines work against Trump.

Ninth, since Trump has already been President and is quite vague on what he would do in a next term, he’s clearly the candidate defined by the past rather than offering a fresh perspective for the future. Given that Democrats are also effectively tethering him to Project 2025 and its unpopular policies, he has a waning opportunity to offer a vision of a more positive future. He’s becomes a nostalgia candidate for those who still believe in him.

Tenth, I believe that America is simply worn out from the negative polarization and is eager to have something positive to move towards. There’s a human desire for upliftment, growth, and new possibilities. A woman of color is a new breakthrough for America and it is an ennobling thing for our country to see ourselves as moving behind racism and sexism in a deep way. That gives the forces behind Kamala a special higher purpose beyond political partisanship. It’s about a fundamental shift in our society towards embodying our founding ideals of equality and freedom. That gives a kind of moral and spiritual power behind the Democrats that Trump and Vance can’t match.

While polls are surprisingly close still, I think all of the above will lead to a more substantial lead in the next two months, with the passionate support of all those who want to see the Harris/Walz vision of the future that offers healing, joy, and new possibilities.